"Did The Covid Vaccine Increase Mortality from All Causes Compared to Those Not Vaccinated Between April 21 and May 2023? An Interview with Jarle Aarstad, PhD."

Mortality involving and not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in England between Apr 21 and May 23 .” F1000Research 2025, 14:133.
(Previously titled: The temporal protection and declining health of the COVID-19 vaccinated in England: A 26-month comparison of the mortality involving and not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated )

Jarle Aarstad, PhD
Western Norway University of Applied Sciences
Bergen, Norway
jarle.aarstad@hvl.no (8/2025)

*** For more evidence-based information by Dr. Jarle Aarstad on increased mortality data from the Covid-19 vaccination go to his substack article , Persistent all-cause excess mortality in Norway, particularly among the young, merits an unbiased explanation. Jarle Aarstad , Jarle Aarstad’s Substack, Oct 02, 2025.***

Kirk Hamilton: Can you please share with me your educational background and current position?

Jarle Aarstad: I am an economist with a PhD in business administration from the NHH Norwegian School of Economics. Now I am a full professor at Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, formally in innovation and entrepreneurship, with numerous publications, including in leading journals. Mostly, I use quantitative methodologies. Over the past few years, my research focus has shifted towards topics related to COVID-19 and vaccination, utilizing similar quantitative approaches.

KH: What got you interested in studying the mortality difference between the Covid vaccination and non-vaccinated during the time period of April 2021 to May 2023?

JA: I have conducted country-level studies on vaccination and excess mortality, and I was interested in examining whether person-level data publicly available align with my previous research findings. Apr 21 to May 23 is the whole period for which the data are publicly available. If the period were extended, of course, I would include them in my study – the more data, the better. Having said that, the period available gives a fairly good insight into what happened in the aftermath of the vaccine rollout.

KH: Can you tell us about your study and the basic results?

JA: The study compared monthly mortality rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals aged 10 years and older in England during the specified period. In my study, vaccinated individuals were those who had received at least one dose. The data provided is age-standardized, meaning that different age distributions among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are accounted for. However, observing differences in mortality may nonetheless be attributed to vaccine hesitancy, which raises concerns. That is, those not taking the vaccine may likely have inferior health at the outset, which can complicate isolating a genuine vaccine effect. To address the issue, I decided to compare all-cause mortality and mortality excluding COVID-19 as a cause. Figure 1A particularly at the beginning of the period shows relatively high mortality among unvaccinated, but as the pattern is similar in Figure 1B concerning mortality not involving COVID-19, a large chunk of the difference can be attributed to unvaccinated having inferior health at the outside (the basic argument in that the vaccine cannot prevent mortality not involving COVID-19). Having said that, comparing the results from those figures, Figure 2A shows that the all-cause mortality, i.e., mortality including COVID-19 (between unvaccinated vs. vaccinated) was higher than mortality not involving COVID-19 (between unvaccinated vs. vaccinated) between July 21 and Jan 22 (the green vs. the orange plot). Having said that, there is a steady decrease in mortality among the unvaccinated compared to the vaccinated (best illustrated in Figure 3 ), or in other words, a steady increase in mortality among the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. I cannot find another explanation for the vaccine’s long-term increase in mortality. Together, the vaccines may have limited the relative increase in mortality among vaccinated individuals for a short period, but the overall trend points in a negative direction.

KH: Did you expect to see a reduction in mortality from Covid initially in the Covid vaccinated group?

JA: According to other research, which claims a temporal protective effect, yes. Nation-level analyses I have done show similar trends during the same period ( but I have started doubting my previous conclusions, which is a topic for a study I am currently working on ).

KH: Can you explain why that difference might have not been to the Covid vaccine protection but the poorer initial health of the non-vaccinated? Or do you think differently?

JA: As Figure 1B excludes mortality related to COVID-19, the only reason for the difference, particularly at the beginning of the period, in my opinion, is that unvaccinated individuals initially had poorer health. That we also know from other research. In Norway, 30% lower mortality among young vaccinated compared to unvaccinated people cannot be attributed to the vaccine since practically zero young people have died from COVID-19 here.

KH: When did you notice those vaccinated started having an increase in overall mortality from all causes?

JA: In Figure 3 , you can observe that it increased among vaccinated individuals from the beginning of the period and decreased among unvaccinated individuals (possibly before, but I don’t have data). On the conservative end, the first months may have been outliers, but the overall trend is nonetheless as reported.

KH: How do your findings reflect on the overall mortality increase in those who took the Covid vaccine? Is the vaccine the probably causative agent?

JA: The vaccine is probably the causative agent, or at least, I cannot find other plausible explanations for the trends observed in Figs. 2A and 3 (the rollout may theoretically explain it, but I have discussed that). As the period followed an earlier period of excess mortality, one would expect a decrease in mortality; however, this is only observed among the unvaccinated.

KH: If this observation is correct of increased overall mortality in those vaccinated with limited benefit of the vaccine it sounds like the Covid vaccine is something that should not be further recommended and administered?

JA: I agree with you. The vaccine has caused substantial harm, with very few, if any, benefits.

KH: Do you have any idea of the causative agent (s) in the Covid vaccine that may be causing an increase in overall mortality (i.e. altered spike protein via lipid nanoparticles being produced for an indeterminant amount of time causing inflammation to vascular, neuronal, reproductive and oncogenic tissue, etc.)

JA: As an economist, I am an expert in numbers but not specifically in medical issues, I leave that issue to other experts.

KH: Do we know how long the spike protein remains in the body?

JA: Again, I leave that for other experts.

KH: How would you further study to corroborate your concerning findings.

JA: I have studied international data (from 39 countries with more than one billion people) that I have followed over three years, from 2021 to 2023, as well as US county data (with over 2000 observations) that I have also followed over the same period. Additionally, I conducted a study on young people in England, which revealed a significant increase in deaths in the weeks following vaccination. The pattern was similar for each dose.

KH: We have two relevant statements in the U.S. “ Numbers don’t lie.” Many other professionals have observed what you have of harm from these vaccines with virtually no efficacy yet ‘Big Pharma”, Public Health agencies and Academia seem entrenched. And the “100th Monkey Concept”. One more bit of evidence eventually tips the scale and people see the light. Let’s hope that’s sooner than later.

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Did the Covid Vaccine Increase Mortality from All Causes?
Summary of Interview & Article (Aarstad, 2025)
( Chat GPT Summary of article and Interview edited by Kirk Hamilton PA)

Author Background

• Jarle Aarstad, PhD – Economist, professor at Western Norway University of Applied Sciences.

• Expertise: quantitative methods, innovation/entrepreneurship, later shifted to COVID-19 and vaccination research.

Study Purpose

• Investigate whether COVID-19 vaccination increased or decreased all-cause mortality in England (Apr 2021–May 2023).

• Unique approach: Compare all-cause mortality with mortality excluding COVID-19 to better account for baseline health differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

Methods

• Data source: UK Office for National Statistics, covering people aged ≥10 years.

• Groups: “Ever vaccinated” (≥1 dose) vs. unvaccinated.

• Outcome measures: Monthly age-standardized mortality rates and odds ratios (all-cause vs. non-COVID causes).

• Rationale:

  • If mortality excluding COVID mirrors all-cause mortality differences, it suggests underlying health disparities, not vaccine effect.

  • If all-cause is higher while non-COVID mortality is similar, it suggests vaccine protection.

Key Findings

1. Early period (Apr–Jun 2021):

   • Higher mortality among unvaccinated than vaccinated.

   • Likely due to poorer initial health of the unvaccinated, not vaccine effect.

2. Mid-period (Jul 2021–Jan 2022):

   • Temporary protective effect of vaccination seen: vaccinated had lower all-cause mortality relative to unvaccinated.

   • Matches prior research showing short-term benefit.

3. Later period (2022–May 2023):

   • Trend reversal: mortality among vaccinated rose relative to unvaccinated.

   • Mortality not involving COVID-19 stayed high in the vaccinated, suggesting factors beyond COVID deaths.

   • By study end, vaccinated and unvaccinated mortality rates were nearly equal.

4. Overall interpretation:

   • Covid vaccinations may have offered short-term protection but was associated with a long-term increase in mortality risk.

   • Aarstad concluded: “The vaccine is probably the causative agent, or at least I cannot find other plausible explanations.”

Interview Highlights

• Aarstad stressed that initial unvaccinated mortality was higher due to pre-existing poorer health, not absence of vaccination.

• From mid-2021, data showed increasing mortality in vaccinated , persisting throughout the study.

• He admitted being an economist, not a medical expert, so he does not speculate on biological mechanisms (e.g., spike protein, nanoparticles).

• He emphasized the need for further international, dose-specific, and age-stratified research.

• Believes vaccines have caused substantial harm with minimal benefit.

Article’s Broader Implications

• Scientific contribution: Offers a new methodological framework for comparing non-randomized groups without relying on control variables (which may worsen bias).

• Policy concern: Vaccines may provide only a short protection window while exposing recipients to adverse long-term outcomes.

• Recommendation: Public health should reconsider blanket vaccination strategies in future pandemics.

Main Takeaways

• Yes, COVID-19 vaccines initially reduced mortality (Jul 2021–Jan 2022).

• Over time, mortality among vaccinated rose compared to unvaccinated , suggesting possible harmful long-term effects.

• Interpretation: The COVID-19 vaccine may have increased all-cause mortality beyond its brief protective phase.

• Aarstad’s conclusion: “Vaccination, despite temporary protection, increased mortality.”

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